Jacqui Lambie: Just enough votes to win, not enough votes to lose

Jacqui Lambie has been elected to the Australian Senate as the primary Tasmanian candidate for the Palmer United Party (PUP). Details of the preference flows can be found at the AEC website here.

However, the key break-point in this race was where the Australian Sex Party (ASXP) was beaten by the third ALP candidate by only 244 votes. This leads to an interesting scenario. If 854 informal voters had instead voted for Jacqui Lambie, or for any of the PUP feeder groups, then Jacqui Lambie would have lost the election.

How? Quota would have been raised, leaving the third ALP candidate behind the ASXP candidate. Then, on exclusion of the ALP candidate, and overflow of the Australian Greens candidate, the ASXP would have continued their preference harvest and won the election.

A fair system?

Accessing The Senate Graphs: Live-Updates

Graphs are available now outlining the current senate make-up and probabilities.

Regular

Overview

Detailed

NSW, VIC & QLD WA, SA, NT, ACT, TAS

Accessing The House Graphs: Live-Updates

Graphs are available now outlining the current HoR make-up.

Overview

Accessing The Graphs: Pre-Election Analysis

Graphs are available now outlining my best estimates of the senate make-up and probabilities.

Regular

Overview

Detailed

NSW, VIC & QLD WA, SA, NT, ACT, TAS