Analysis Overview

The graphs below serve as an estimate of the possible outcomes for the Western Australia senate by-election. These numbers are drawn directly from the mediafeed provided by the AEC. The assumption used is that all primary votes above the line, all primary votes for the first candidate, and all unapportioned votes (for the party, but not yet distributed to a candidate or above the line) are considered "above the line" votes. For parties which break quota I will add in the second and third candidates as required.

The first graph below is a count of the current primary votes. The second graph estimates the probable number of seats a given party will win. The third graph is the most likely outcome and the fourth graph gives (horizontally) the probability of a particular Half-Senate breakdown (vertically).

9:23pm - Site Live

The AEC has released eight votes, so hopefully we will get more throughout the night. ABC24 appears to be grilling Louise Pratt about the last 48 hours.

9:42pm - More Votes

46 votes out now!

9:45pm - More Votes

144 votes out now!